Japan’s Sakura Forecast 2025 - Will the Japanese Cherry Blossoms be Early or Late This Spring?
Japan 2025 Cherry Blossom Sakura Forecast. Image Credit: TokudAw Inc
Last year’s unusually warm autumn surprised everyone as it gave way to this season’s surprisingly cold winter that has brought on record snowfall in many snow resorts, making the 2024-2025 winter season in Japan a blast for snow sports enthusiasts!
But, as winter transitions to spring, it’s time to start planning for the most awaited ritual in the Japanese seasonal calendar - hanami, or cherry blossom viewing. Every spring, Japanese residents and tourists look forward to the cherry blossom forecast released by the Japanese Meteorological Agency to plan their travels.
With the massive swings in temperature messing up the sakura’s internal thermostat, you may be excused for wondering if the sakura will blossom early or late this spring. Many tourists to Japan were disappointed last year after the cherry blossoms appeared later than expected, leaving many of them having to go home without any photograph of the famed flowers.
The cherry blossoms will likely bloom later than usual in 2025
According to early forecasts, this year’s somei yoshino cherry blossoms (the most common variety of sakura variety, often planted in parks) are forecast to start blooming on par with, or later than the average year.
However, based on current data, we believe that the cherry blossoms will bloom later than usual. For instance, the kawazu zakura - a showier variety that starts blooming in February - has revealed its petals two weeks later than usual. Plus, we’re already seeing the latest forecast revise the blooming dates by one to two days later across all of Japan.
As anyone who has chased the sakura knows, the blossoms do not stay open for long, and full bloom usually lasts 3-4 days. Within less than a week, much of the petals will have been shed as the pink and white flowers start making way for green leaves.
Such is the ephemerality of the sakura. It is both a celebration of spring and a reminder that nothing is forever - a philosophy that continues to underpin the philosophy and aesthetics of Japanese culture.
But you don’t have to leave it all to fate and luck.
Our recommendation is to take the information below as a reference to help you plan your spring visit to Japan. To improve your chances of catching the blossoms, it might be best to take an extended trip, stay up-to-date with the sakura forecast, and be flexible to adjust your itinerary and go where the blossoms are.
Cherry Blossom Forecast Map. Image credit: TokudAw Inc.
We regularly consult Japanese meteorological data to stay up to date with the sakura forecast.
Source: 2025年桜の開花・満開予想（第5回）を発表 | ニュース | 日本気象株式会社
For the curious: How cherry blossoms bloom
What determines when the cherry blossoms bloom and fully open is the temperature change from the previous fall. The cherry blossom flower buds are formed in the summer before blooming. They then go through the following two stages: dormancy and growth.
After the flower buds are formed, they go into dormancy to survive the upcoming winter - a harsh period with cold temperatures and short days and long nights. This survival adaptation is also seen in many other plants in temperate zones. During this time, the buds do not change in appearance.
When exposed to low temperatures (-5 to 15℃) during the fall and winter, the tree senses that spring is just around the corner and starts to awaken, breaking the dormancy phase. The buds then enter the growth stage, flowering as the temperature rises in early spring. At this stage, the higher the temperature, the greater the degree of growth.
The flower buds gradually begin to swell. The tips of the flower buds gradually turn yellowish green, and just before flowering, a glimpse of the petals can be seen.
The cultural meaning of hanami and sakura
The practice of hanami – literally “flower viewing” – is said to have started in the Nara period (710-794). Like many other cultural rituals in Japan, this custom also has roots in China. Originally, the flower that people gathered to admire was ume, or plum blossoms - which are native to China. By the mid-Heian period (794–1185), as Japan developed it own unique culture, the object of hanami shifted to sakura. Today, hanami is synonymous with sakura.
Not surprisingly, like many other traditional Japanese customs, hanami started out as an aristocratic one. Slowly, it became popular with the samurai, and by the Edo period, it had spread throughout the common folk.
Today, hanami is not simply about gazing at pretty flowers. In reality, it’s also a time for friends and family to gather, feast, and drink. What better way to enjoy the beginning of spring, then with some boisterous revelry under a canopy of pink and white blossoms?
The Japanese expression “hana yori dango” – dango* over flowers – perfectly captures what everyone secretly knows: going to ohanami is a thinly disguised yet culturally accepted excuse and to feast and get drunk. The flowers themselves are second priority
For that reason, in many parks throughout Japan, people often arrive early in the morning to secure the best locations to open up their picnic sheets, often staying the entire day. If you don’t know where to go, you’ll have to fight with many other people to even get a good spot to enjoy the flowers and the gentle warm of the spring sun.
* a Japanese sweet made out of glutinous rice
Maximize your sakura experience with your private sakura transfer
At TokudAw, we stay up to date with the bloom schedule by keeping up to date with the Japan meteorological forecast. We get you to where you can get the best possible sakura experience.
Plus, our drivers and itinerary planners regularly consult Hanami Walker - Japan’s local guide for Japanese citizens and residents to find the best uncrowded spots for you to view the blossoms. So you get to visit nice quiet gardens with nice blooms, instead of having to crowd with everyone in the usual tourist locations - a nightmare that can seriously drain your energy and leave you feeling tired.
Maximize your chances of getting the best experience of the ephemeral beauty of Japan’s beautiful sakura season. You don’t want to return home and miss your once-in-a-lifetime experience of witnessing the beautiful blossoms with your own eyes.
Contact TokudAw now to plan your sakura spring trip to Japan!
